Utilitarian Calculus

Gospel: Matthew 18: 12-14

Jesus invites our response to the parable of the lost sheep.  So from the point of view of the shepherd, the following thought process is employed: if he chooses to do nothing and not go after the lost sheep, it is likely that lost sheep will never be recovered, but the 99 are safe in his care.  On the other hand, if he chooses to go after the lost sheep he may well save that sheep, but he may lose others he left behind.  Most shepherds would not seek after the lost sheep by this reckoning.

But consider: if the shepherd makes it a habit to not seek out lost sheep, he could very well lose his flock one by one over time.  The shepherd makes the assumption that this lost sheep is a one time occurrence, when in reality this event could repeat itself time and again.  

In any case, Jesus is convinced that a good shepherd would go after the lost sheep, for in reality this parable is an allegory.  All of us are lost sheep; there is not a secure one among us in the flock of the Lord.  God comes among us to seek us out and rescue us from ourselves.  This is the message and hope of Advent.